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The F1 Times Singapore GP Gamble
Thursday 20th September 2012, 19:52 by Daniel Chalmers
The F1 Times gambling contest between Ryan Wood (Editor) and Daniel Chalmers (Feature Editor) heads to the 14th round at the Marina Bay circuit for the Singapore GP.
Both men have a budget of £5 to spend on a maximum of 3 different bets relating to the upcoming event. The deadline for these bets to be placed is before the start of the first Friday practise session.
At the end of the season the winner will be the person who has made the most profit, or made the lowest loss.
Here are the results from last time.
Bet 1 – Lewis Hamilton to win the Italian Grand Prix at 100/30 - £3.00 - Won £12.99
Bet 2 – Jenson Button to win the Italian Grand Prix at 5/1 - £2.00
Bet 1 – Jerome D’ambrosio to finish in the top 6 at 4/1 - £2.00
Bet 2 – A British 1-2 at 7/1 - £2.00
Bet 3 - Michael Schumacher to qualify on pole at 33/1 – 50p each way
Monza turned out to be a mixed weekend. It was very clear after Spa that McLaren were going to be hot favourites for the Italian GP. It was a question of which driver to put money on.
Ryan put money on both drivers and won £12.99 for Lewis Hamilton winning the race. Daniel did a more ambitious bet gambling on a British 1-2. It almost paid off as Hamilton and Jenson Button were running 1-2 in the middle of the race. Unfortunately Button’s reliability issue robbed Daniel of a £16.00 win.
After thirteen races £65 has been spent by both men. Ryan now has £45.74 worth of profit, whilst Daniel has £31.40 worth of losses. Therefore there is a difference of £77.14 between the two gamblers.
This weekend we head to Singapore for the unique night race. This is certainly a very different proposition to Monza.
This is a circuit full of slow corners so strong traction is vitally important, as well as having a car that is very strong over the kerbs. The lack of long straights also means that having a lack of horsepower isn’t a big disadvantage like it is at other tracks.
Although there aren’t many huge braking points, this a tough race on brakes simply due to the sheer number of braking points. We have seen this become an issue for the teams in the past at this event.
For the drivers the track is very challenging. It’s one of the longest laps of the year, and with 23 corners in total putting together the perfect lap is incredibly tough. With barriers lining most of the circuit it is also one of the most unforgiving.
The humid heat and the long length of the race (the best part of two hours) make this perhaps the biggest physical test of all during 2012.
Another key factor to consider is that the safety often makes an appearance. This certainly has the potential to turn the race on its head depending on when it gets deployed.
Let’s see where the money is going this weekend.
Round 14 Singapore
Bet 1 - Sebastian Vettel to win the Singapore GP - £2.00 at 8/1
Whilst Lewis Hamilton is the overwhelming favourite for the victory in Singapore, having won two of the last three races, the odds of 2/1 being offered aren't that tempting. That's led me to split my bets between three drivers this weekend.
Sebastian Vettel has a great chance at victory this weekend. The RB8 should suit the Marina Bay layout which consists of slower corners, lots of them, and higher temperatures However the alternator issue which struck in Valencia and Italy may very well be an issue if Renault haven't yet solved the problem.
Bets 2 and 3 - Michael Schumacher to win the Singapore GP - £1.50 at 50/1 or Nico Rosberg to win the Singapore GP - £1.50 at 50/1
I am however hoping for a Mercedes victory despite my Vettel bet. I've split my remaining money between Schumacher and Rosberg who have come in at an unlikely 50/1.
These are pretty good odds considering the Mercedes W03 will suit the Singapore street circuit, better still, the team are likely to be running their new coanda-effect exhausts which could give them a substantial downforce gain at the rear which is where they have been lacking. The straight-line speed of the W03 will also give the German duo an advantage along the straights particularly during qualifying.
A Mercedes win might be a little optimistic at this stage in the season given their rivals pace, but with some pretty poor odds being offered on Hamilton, Button and Alonso, the only way to make any real money it seems is to take a risk.
Bets 1 and 2 – Michael Schumacher to win the Singapore GP - £1 each way at 40/1 or Nico Rosberg to win the Singapore GP - £1 each way at 40/1
I am putting most of my money on Mercedes this weekend. Singapore should be a track that suits them. The problem with the W03 is that its performance is very poor in long high speed corners, of which there are none in Singapore.
The car also seems to be good on street tracks as proved by the team’s strong performance back in Monaco. Schumacher was on pole (before taking a five place grid drop) and Rosberg finished second in the race.
They are also bringing a huge upgrade which includes the Coanda-effect exhausts. This should be a significant gain for the team. It’s particularly effective in slow corners so the perfect upgrade to bring to Singapore.
They have already been testing it in the young driver test at Magny-Cours, so should be able to use it in Singapore without any problems.
Winning the race is a stretch, but even a podium for one of the cars will give me a win of £9.00, which is still very good.
Bet 3 – Mark Webber to win the Singapore GP - £1.00 at 14/1
Red Bull is another team who I expect to be in much better shape this weekend. The last couple of races haven’t really suited their strengths.
However I think the Marina bay circuit will be ideal for them. There are no long straights so Red Bull doesn’t have to play their weak card this weekend. Furthermore when you look back over 2012 the RB8 has fared much better in tracks dominated by slow corners.
Red Bull was very quick in Monaco and Valencia for example, so I am backing them to be a factor in this race.
It has been nip and tuck between Vettel and Webber all year. I think Webber is a pretty decent bet at odds of 14/1. I just have to hope it is one of Mark's good weekends.