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The F1 Times German GP Gamble
Friday 20th July 2012, 17:38 by Daniel Chalmers
The F1 Times gambling contest between Ryan Wood (Editor) and Daniel Chalmers (Feature Editor) heads to the 10th round at Hockenheim for the German GP.
Both men have a budget of £5 to spend on a maximum of 3 different bets relating to the upcoming event. The deadline for these bets to be placed is before the start of the first Friday practise session.
At the end of the season the winner will be the person who has made the most profit, or made the lowest loss.
Here are the results from last time.
Bet 1 - Lewis Hamilton to win the British GP - £2.00 at 100/30
Bet 2 - Sebastian Vettel to win the British GP - £2.00 at 3/1
Bet 3 - Pastor Maldonado to finish on the podium - £1.00 at 8/1
Bet 1 – Heikki Kovalainen to score a point - £2.00 at 20/1
Bet 2 – Both Toro Rosso drivers to finish in the points – £2.00 at 50/1
Bet 3 – Both Sauber drivers to finish on the podium - £1.00 at 500/1
It was a terrible week for Daniel and Ryan as neither won any money. Daniel decided to gamble on it being a wet weekend and went for long odds. It was looking good before the red flag in Q2 with both Sauber and Toro Rosso showing up well. From the restart it went downhill, and then the rain didn’t materialise in the race.
Ryan put his eggs in two baskets for the race win, but Vettel and Hamilton were never in contention for victory. Webber was the star of the show and at 10/1 before the race weekend both our gamblers made an error to ignore him. In fact Daniel said he would have gone for him had a normal 100% dry weekend been predicted.
After nine races £45 has been spent by both men. Ryan now has £9.75 worth of profit, whilst Daniel has £28.00 worth of losses. Therefore there is still a difference of £37.75 between the two gamblers.
This weekend we are in Hockenheim for the German GP. This is the first time we have had a race at this circuit with DRS and Pirelli tyres. Therefore there are unknowns this weekend so not that easy to make a prediction.
The fact that it’s quite a short lap combined with the layout being quite simple, means we could see a very close and wide open weekend.
Generally the circuit has a mix of fast and slow corners (with slow corners being the more dominant feature) plus the long straight (or curve to be more accurate) leading up to the hairpin.
In the past we have seen a lot of overtaking at this track, with the hairpin being a great place for passing. This isn’t a track where pole position is a necessity. With the Pirelli tyres and DRS passing will be even easier this year.
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Let’s see where the money is going this weekend.
Round 10 Germany
Fernando Alonso to win the German GP - £2.00 at 9/2
Ferrari are certain the F2012 will suit the circuit allowing them to challenge at the front, much like Fernando Alonso has done at almost all the races this season despite driving an inferior car. The F2012 is no longer inferior, in fact it's clearly the second quickest car behind Red Bull.
Alonso could certainly become our first three-time winner in 2012, he finished just 3 seconds behind Webber at the British GP, though he did start on pole, but his strategy of starting on the harder tyre didn't pay off.
Felipe Massa to finish on the podium - £2.00 at 7/1
The 2010 German Grand Prix at Hockenheim marked Felipe Massa's return to form following his scary accident in 2009 at the Hungarian GP. Massa looked set to win the race before team orders intervened and Ferrari swapped him and Fernando Alonso. He still finished second which remains his best position since the 2010 Bahrain GP.
Massa's endured a tough season, but things have been getting better and better with every passing weekend. I reckon this race could very well mark his return to the podium since the 2010 Korean GP in which he finished second.
Exactly 3 cars to retire on lap 1 - £1.00 at 20/1
With such a close season, the odds offered on the regular bets such as winning driver, pole position etc, are just so low I've decided to take a shot in the dark with this bet, no guesswork involved here.
Bet 1 – Lewis Hamilton to qualify on pole - £1.00 at 4/1
Hamilton has been fantastic over a single lap all season long, qualifying in the top three eight times out of nine. This includes 3 pole positions (including the one he lost in Spain).
McLaren had a big upgrade in Silverstone but due to the wet conditions it wasn’t fully optimised. McLaren have another big update here in Germany too. If they can now get both sets of updates working this weekend, I think the Woking team could take a decisive step forward in this race.
Lewis was also brilliant at this circuit back in 2008 with pole position, and a great winning race performance. Expect him to be very strong in the final stadium section in particular.
Bet 2 – Michael Schumacher to win the German GP - £1.00 each way at 18/1
Schumacher has been on decent form recently. He got a brilliant podium in Valencia and qualified in the top three in the wet qualifying session at Silverstone.
In Valencia the conditions were too hot for Mercedes, and the high speed nature of Silverstone didn’t really suit the team either.
It’s not meant to be too warm in Hockenheim this weekend, and the track layout should be more to their liking. Therefore you would think the team should be able to enjoy one of their strongest weekends this time out.
They will also be going all out to ensure they impress in their home race, as will Schumacher himself. He has won on the new Hockenheim configuration three times (2002, 2004 and 2006).
The victory is perhaps a long shot but can definitely see Michael on the podium, which would win me part of these odds.
Bet 3 – Jenson Button to win the German GP - £1.00 each way at 18/1
Button has to return to form at some point so why not here at Hockenheim? McLaren’s biggest update of the season could well help Jenson get a better handling on the car. If it doesn’t then the question will be what will?
As Hockenheim is one of the simplest track layouts on the calendar it’s not one of the hardest to find the perfect setup for. So this could also help Jenson, who really does need the perfect setup to perform at his best.
He also has a good record at this track. He got podiums in 2004, 2005 and 2006. Without a ten place grid penalty for an engine change in 2004 he potentially had the pace to win that race.
If the car is working well for Jenson then there is no doubt we will see him back at the front.