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The F1 Times British GP Gamble
Friday 06th July 2012, 11:08 by Daniel Chalmers
The F1 Times gambling contest between Ryan Wood (Editor) and Daniel Chalmers (Feature Editor) heads to the 9th round at Silverstone for the British GP.
Both men have a budget of £5 to spend on a maximum of 3 different bets relating to the upcoming event. The deadline for these bets to be placed is before the start of the first Friday practise session.
At the end of the season the winner will be the person who has made the most profit, or made the lowest loss.
Here are the results from last time.
Bet 1 - Michael Schumacher to qualify on the front-row - £1.00 at 5/1
Bet 2 - Michael Schumacher to finish on the podium - £2.00 at 4/1 - Won
Bet 3 - Lewis Hamilton to win the European GP - £2.00 at 11/4
Bet 1 – Sebastian Vettel to qualify on pole- £2.00 at 11/4 - Won
Bet 2 – Kimi Raikkonen to win the race - £1.50 at 12/1
Bet 3 – Jenson Button to finish on the podium - £1.50 at 7/2
Overall it was a decent week for both our gamblers. Daniel won £7.50 for correctly predicting that Vettel would take pole position. He also came close to getting a good return thanks to Raikkonen.
After Vettel and Romain Grosjean retired Kimi looked to be well placed to win. Had he just passed Hamilton earlier than he did, he might have had the chance to pass Fernando Alonso. Lotus were looking very quick.
Ryan was looking in pretty poor shape until Schumacher’s brilliant late surge benefiting from fresher tyres and other’s misfortunes. Although luck played a part, there is no doubt Schumacher deserved a podium. Ryan won £10.00 as a result.
After eight rounds £40 have been spent by both men. Ryan now has £14.75 worth of profit, whilst Daniel has £23.00 worth of losses. Therefore there is now a difference of £37.75 between the two gamblers.
Heading to Silverstone and the conditions couldn’t be more different to what we experienced in Valencia. There we had hot temperatures and mostly slow corners.
Silverstone features a number of high speed corners, with much cooler temperatures compared to Valencia predicted. Furthermore there is a strong chance of rain during the weekend to shake things up a bit.
It’s going to be interesting to see how much this changes the formbook, or whether Red Bull confirm that the huge step forward they appeared to take in Valencia is real.
Another factor to consider is that a number of teams will be bringing significant upgrades to this race. It’s almost like the Spanish GP all over again in that respect.
In a race where unpredictable weather is expected do you go safe with your bets, or go chasing the longer odds hoping the weather causes an upset?
What’s clear is we have two very different approaches from our two gamblers this weekend.
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Let’s see where the money is going this weekend.
Round 9 Britain
Bet 1- Lewis Hamilton to win the British GP - £2.00 at 100/30 & Bet 2 -Sebastian Vettel to win the British GP - £2.00 at 3/1
I've taken a rather unusual strategy of betting on two different drivers to win the race. Why? Because I simply couldn't choose between Hamilton nor Vettel. The latter seems the obvious choice given his stunning pace in Valencia, often a second quicker than the entire grid, before his unfortunate retirement. Whilst the pace is ominous, it doesn't necessarily mean Vettel will walk the British GP.
The Valencia street circuit consists of slow corners, long-straights and high temperatures. These are all features that favour the RB8. Silverstone couldn't be further up the spectrum. It features high speed corners, cold temperatures and possibly (most likely) rain. These features suit McLaren, not Red Bull, which is why I believe it'll be a closely fought race between Vettel and Hamilton.
Bet 3 - Pastor Maldonado to finish on the podium - £1.00 at 8/1
Maldonado has had moments of sheer brilliance in 2012. He's also had moments of disbelief which have overshadowed some of his performances. I'm hoping for the former and I believe Williams could do well here. Maldonado won in Spain, a circuit which is quite similar to Silverstone in terms of layout. Williams also have several upgrades for the race.
Bet 1 - Heikki Kovalainen to score a point - £2.00 at 20/1
This bet has featured a few times this season but Caterham are making real progress now. Kovalainen qualified brilliantly last time out, beating both Toro Rossos on merit.
In Silverstone the team are going to be introducing a big upgrade in order to close the gap on the other midfield teams. If it’s enough to close the gap, the midfield are so closely bunched together, that Caterham could take a sudden surge up the grid. In that scenario they would be in a great position to challenge for points.
Plus the unpredictable weather expected this weekend will do Heikki’s chances no harm at all.
Bet 2 – Both Toro Rosso drivers to finish in the points – £2.00 at 50/1
Realistically this will only have a chance of happening if it rains on Sunday, as the team aren’t on great form at the moment.
However if the heavens open it will give both Jean Eric Vergne and Daniel Ricciardo a chance to battle for the points. Let’s remember that Vergne had a decent race in the wet in Sepang earlier on in the season.
If it rains heavily and both drivers can keep their noses clean, then there is a strong chance of them inheriting points as a result of misfortunes and mistakes from rivals.
50/1 for two midfield drivers to finish in the top 10 is quite an attractive bet, especially with the weather that is predicted.
Bet 3 – Both Sauber drivers to finish on the podium - £1.00 at 500/1
Silverstone should be a very strong circuit for the Swiss team. So far in 2012 the team have performed best in cool conditions. Sergio Perez should have won in the wet at Malaysia, Kamui Kobayashi qualified a brilliant 4th in the cool conditions in Shanghai.
Sauber's tyre management has also been brilliant, and was a key factor in the podium finish Perez enjoyed in Montreal for example.
The combination of the predicted cool conditions, and a circuit that is notoriously hard on tyres, could bring Sauber right into play.
Add in some rain to mix things up further, and this bet coming off isn’t as impossible as it may first appear. It’s still not that likely, but after taking everything into consideration it’s well worth a pound at these brilliant odds.