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The F1 Times Spanish GP Gamble
Friday 11th May 2012, 18:14 by Daniel Chalmers
The F1 Times gambling contest between Ryan Wood (Editor) and Daniel Chalmers (Feature Editor) heads to the fifth round in Spain and the start of the European season.
To remind you of the rules both men have a budget of £5 to spend on a maximum of 3 different bets relating to the upcoming event. The deadline for these bets to be placed is before the start of the first Friday practice session.
At the end of the season the winner will be the person who has made the most profit, or made the lowest loss.
Here are the results from the last time.
Bet 1 – Kimi Raikkonen to finish on the podium at 7/2 - £1 stake – Ryan won £4.50
Bet 2 – Hamilton to win and set fastest lap at 13/2 - £2 stake
Bet 3 – Three cars to retire on lap 1 at 20/1 - £2 stake
Bet 1 – Nico Rosberg to get pole position at 4/1 - £1 stake
Bet 2 – Mark Webber to finish on the podium at 3/1 - £2 stake
Bet 3 – Kimi Raikkonen to finish on the podium at 15/4 - £2 stake – Daniel won £9.50
It was a pretty good week for both Daniel and Ryan. Daniel finally won his first bet of the season thanks to Kimi Raikkonen’s podium. He won an impressive £9.50. Ryan also bet on Kimi to finish on the podium and won £4.50.
After four races £20 pounds have been spent by both men. Ryan now has £7.50 worth of profit, whilst Daniel has £10.50 worth of losses. Therefore there is currently a difference of £18.00 between the duo.
However one race could completely turn the tables in this contest. It’s very much all still to play for. All the teams will be bringing upgrades to the Spanish GP, and there is also a small threat of rain on Sunday. So yet again choosing where to place our bets this weekend is not an easy task. F1 is just too unpredictable at the moment.
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So let’s see where our money is going to go this weekend.
Round 5 Spain
Mark Webber to finish on the podium at 7/1 - £2 stake
Can the Australian go one better than he has in 2012 and finally get his foot on the podium? He's had four fourth places so far. He's always done quite well in Spain, a circuit which generally suits Red Bull and they've proved they have the pace after Sebastian Vettel win in Bahrain last time out.
Exactly two retirements in the opening lap at 6/1 - £2 stake
A stab in the dark. A bet which has very little thought behind purely because retirements are so hard to predict. The drivers know the circuit better than any thanks to all the testing which takes place, but those two first corners which make up the 'S' bend are tricky for 24 cars to negotiate without some contact.
Lewis Hamilton to secure pole position at 9/4 - £1 stake
The circuit will suit McLaren, Lotus and Red Bull. I don't think Mercedes will be as strong here because of the lack of straights - just one with a short back straight. The fast flowing corners haven't troubled McLaren much this season, and that is what primarily makes up the Barcelona circuit. I think it'll be a return to pole for the McLaren man.
Daniel Ricciardo to finish in the points at 3/1 - £2 stake
I think these are very good odds on something that is quite likely to happen. Toro Rosso haven’t scored any points in the last two races but they are certainly not off the pace.
In Bahrain Toro Rosso understood their upgrades which were originally taken to the Chinese GP. Ricciardo made great use of them and qualified in an extremely impressive 6th position. Unfortunately in the race it went badly wrong and it wasn’t to be Daniel’s afternoon.
If he can have a clean weekend and Toro Rosso have been able to improve the car even further then Ricciardo has a great chance of scoring this weekend. Ricciardo has the one lap place to get his car right up there in the mix, and grid position is critical in Barcelona.
Jenson Button to win the race at 4/1 -£2 stake
McLaren were badly off the pace in the race in Bahrain. However that was more due to the fact that they misunderstood the tyres on race day so badly that it lost them about a second’s worth of performance. In qualifying Hamilton showed that it was still a very quick car. It was also very quick in China and without a botched pit stop Jenson would very likely have won there.
Spain always shows who has the best car. The McLaren is still the best all round car, but they haven’t been making the most of it. The best all round car always tends to come on top at Catalunya. McLaren were very fast during winter testing here, and you can be sure that they will be bringing useful upgrades and changes to the car for this race.
This together with the high demands Barcelona places on the front tyres I think Jenson could be the man to bring a victory home for McLaren.
Sergio Perez to finish on the podium at 40/1 - £1 stake
This one is a real shot in the dark. This is mainly gambling on it being a wet race on Sunday (which looked much more likely when the bet was placed). Sauber were very quick in the wet in Malaysia. If it were to rain again this weekend I don’t see any reason why he can’t do it again.
As Sauber demonstrated in China this car is good in cool conditions generally, when Kamui Kobayashi started 3rd on the grid (after Lewis Hamilton’s grid penalty).
The car is also very easy on its tyres and that will be particularly useful in Barcelona with it’s long aero demanding corners in both the wet and the dry.
40/1 for a man who finished on the podium just a couple of races ago are nice odds and well worth a punt.